Bitcoin below $70,000: What does the 200-day moving average show?
Bitcoin loses $70,000 and pulls away from its 200-day moving average, but how much can one line tell us about the next move?
Bitcoin (BTC) today
€60,700
−2.1% in 24h
Price and chart
Bitcoin is trading at $68,523 on November 13, 2026, at 07:55, down 6.8% on the day, according to CoinGecko. It is below $70,000 and below its 200-day simple moving average, at around $73,000: a sign that the long-term trend is deteriorating, not proof that the decline will continue.
What is happening in the Bitcoin market right now?
The pressure is broad-based, with the total crypto market cap down 8.09% over 24 hours to $2.33 trillion. Total daily trading volume reaches $86.43 billion, and Bitcoin dominance, its share of the total market cap, stands at 59.07%.
| Coin | Price | 24h | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $68,523 | −6.8% | −9.6% |
| Ethereum | $1,918 | −6.2% | −13.8% |
| Solana | $79 | −4.9% | −12.6% |
| XRP | $1.0130 | −2.6% | −16.5% |
Source: CoinGecko, Nov 13, 2026, 07:55.
In a separate reading at 05:04 UTC, UseTheBitcoin showed a monthly drop of 18.19%, Bitcoin volume of $36.50 billion, 29% above the 30-day average, and a gap of 45.7% from the $126,080 all-time high of October 6, 2025, that the provider uses. All-time highs differ slightly between sources.
Timing matters. The initial snapshot gives a Fear & Greed Index reading of 33, while a separate Alternative.me reading at 02:30 UTC showed 20/100, “extreme fear.” We don’t merge them into one measurement, nor do we treat sentiment as a price prediction.
Why is Bitcoin falling below $70,000?
The decline coincides with ETF outflows, worries about interest rates and forced position closures, with no evidence of a single cause.
ETF outflows are curbing demand
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, exchange-traded products that provide exposure to Bitcoin, recorded net outflows of $299.9 million on November 11. It was the fifth straight session of outflows, totaling about $1.44 billion, according to TFTC.
Over the eight November sessions up to that point, outflows reached about $1.9 billion, of which $1.8 billion came from BlackRock’s IBIT. The largest daily outflow was $430.2 million, on November 5. These figures run through November 11, checked for revisions on the 12th, and are not final flows for today.
Inflation, the dollar and Strategy
The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month over month in October, versus expectations of 0.3% and a 0.6% increase in September. The BLS did not provide a year-over-year comparison because of missing data from last year during the government shutdown.
Expectations of a December rate hike had strengthened, and CoinDesk reported on November 12 that the dollar index briefly topped 103, its highest level since March 2025. These are sources of pressure, not proof of a single cause.
On top of that came concern that Strategy’s removal from MSCI indexes could make it harder to fund future Bitcoin purchases. As Marex analysts pointed out, sales of Strategy shares do not automatically mean the company will sell Bitcoin.
Derivatives amplify sharp moves
Liquidations show how intense the pressure is, but the available estimates are not directly comparable. Crypto Briefing reported $622 million in four hours across crypto as a whole. CoinMarketCap recorded more than $650 million over 24 hours, about $237 million of it from Bitcoin. We don’t add these amounts together.
Open interest, the value of outstanding contracts, stood at $20.01 billion across seven exchanges, down 1.9%. A different measurement across five exchanges showed a perpetual futures funding rate of +0.0036% per eight hours: longs were paying shorts. The instantaneous annualized rate of 3.92% is not a forecast of future payments.
What does the 200-day moving average show?
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) calculates the average of daily closing prices and describes the trend with a lag. Think of it like the average time of your daily commute: one bad day affects the average a little, many in a row change it more.
It does not calculate “fair value.” Its values also differ by source and by closing time.
| Reading | Bitcoin | 200-day SMA | 50-day SMA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 close, Axel Adler Jr., UTC | $71,460 | $73,132 | $80,946 |
| Nov 13, 05:04 UTC, UseTheBitcoin | $68,455 | $73,038 | $80,549 |
In Axel Adler Jr.’s series, the completed close of November 12 was 2.29% below the indicator. In the intraday reading of November 13, the gap reached about 6.3%. The second measurement is not a completed daily close.
Do we have a “death cross” or oversold conditions?
No death cross has been recorded in these snapshots, as the 50-day average remains above the 200-day. The price falling below the averages is a different event. The last golden cross dates back to September 8, 2026.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 25 at 05:04 UTC. It measures momentum, and a reading below 30 is conventionally considered oversold. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence), another momentum indicator, was below its signal line.
Oversold describes how hard the market has fallen. It does not certify that the bottom is in.
Which levels are analysts watching?
The $68,000 area is drawing attention, with no guarantee it will hold as support. Wintermute had flagged it on November 12, remaining cautious below the 50-week average, then at $75,153. It had also said that reclaiming $80,000 would change its assessment; that is not a price target.
Separately, Firsthand Bitcoin estimated the 200-week average at $67,820 on November 12. Mind the unit: 200 weeks and 200 days are not the same indicator.
What does blockchain data add?
The available on-chain data already showed pressure on newer holders, but these are not today’s readings. Glassnode on November 4 estimated the short-term holder cost basis at $75,700 and the True Market Mean, an estimate of active investors’ cost basis, at $77,700.
Only about 38% of short-term holder supply was in profit, compared with almost all of it in early October. Today’s price is below those earlier estimates, but the indicators may have moved. We don’t have confirmed current values for realized price, MVRV or net exchange flows.
What does history show after breakdowns like this?
History includes both rebounds and prolonged weakness below the 200-day average. On August 12, 2024, ICRYPEX recorded Bitcoin below $60,000 with the average at about $62,300. CoinGlass’s series records a year-end close of $93,429.20.
By contrast, for the 2022–23 bear market, CoinDesk reported about 436 days below the indicator, using the analysts’ specific methodology. Neither a breakdown nor a golden cross has a flawless track record. We think how long the price stays there and how it behaves around the average say more than a momentary cross.
What are the bullish and bearish scenarios?
The bullish scenario requires stabilization and a sustained recovery of lost levels, while the bearish one gains weight if outflows continue and rebounds fail. This is a framework for monitoring, not a prediction.
In the first case, we watch for a reclaim of $70,000 and then of the 200-day average, along with easing pressure from ETFs and derivatives. In the second, we look at how the price behaves around $68,000 and the previously estimated 200-week average. Indicators sitting close together do not create an impenetrable safety net.
The SEC proposals and the CFTC consultation on retail crypto trading remain regulatory developments still taking shape, not proven direct causes of the decline. Also, for readers in Greece, dollar valuations are not the same as returns in euros.
What are we watching from here?
The next completed closes and the full ETF reports will show whether the pressure persists. Meanwhile, the calendar includes:
- November 13 Scheduled release of the US producer price index at 08:30 Eastern Time. The result has not been confirmed in the available data.
- November 27 Bitcoin options expiry, with open interest of $5.7 billion as recorded by Glassnode on November 4.
- December 4 Scheduled November jobs report at 08:30 Eastern Time.
- December 8–9 Meeting of the Fed’s monetary policy committee, with the decision and press conference on December 9.
- December 25 Options expiry with open interest recorded at the time at $12.5 billion. Expiry amounts can change.
Our take on the breakdown
Losing the 200-day average is a warning sign of weakness, not an oracle. ETF outflows and the macroeconomic backdrop add weight, and a low RSI is not enough to offset them. We are watching how long the breakdown lasts and the actual flows, not just whether the price crossed a line.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Cryptocurrencies carry high risk and significant volatility.