Bitcoin: technical analysis, October 3, 2023

Hello from the crazy crew at Altcoin Wonderland!!! It’s Tuesday, October 3, 2023, and it’s time to look at what’s next for Bitcoin, which obviously affects the whole crypto market.

 Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin made a crazy bounce from Sunday into Monday: within a few minutes we saw a move from 27K to 28K, $1,000 added to its price just like that!

Why? The main reason must have been upward price pressure from China, as the rise came when the Asian market opened, before the US! This is also related to the fact that in the previous days China had injected liquidity into the market through RR (reverse repo).

In the US, however, the corresponding liquidity has fallen and keeps falling, and stocks and Bitcoin usually follow it!

So the question is whether it will keep rising or not. In the short term we could well go to 32K IF China keeps up the same pattern; otherwise we will logically head down to find US liquidity (simply put).

Now let’s talk technical analysis!

Bitcoin monthly chart

September closed positive, above the 50-month moving average! A good sign. In past years this has usually meant a good rise in October.

But let’s not forget that what happened before won’t necessarily happen again, especially since we are in a different macroeconomic situation.

Bitcoin weekly chart

The negative sign in the rise we had is that the week closed below the 200-week moving average, which is currently acting as resistance.

If we really fail to break above 28.1K (MA200), we may form a head and shoulders pattern, which signals a local top, and the next move would be further down toward 20K.

The price ranges remain the same.

Bitcoin daily chart

So, as we also see on the daily chart, either we break above 28.1K, fill the fair value gap there and hold the area as support, which would be a sign of an almost certain rise to 32K, or we lose 28.1K and keep going down to 23K–24K for a start.

That’s it from me. Keep going strong, folks, and be careful! Always use risk management, stop losses and proper position sizing. Happy trading! Thanks a lot!

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