Kalshi and Trump Jr. part ways over Polymarket
How long can an advisory relationship last when the adviser is funding a major competitor?
Kalshi ended its advisory relationship with Donald Trump Jr., citing his firm 1789 Capital's investment in rival Polymarket. The decision became public on November 12, 2026, and, according to Kalshi, was mutual and had no political motives. The US president's son remains an adviser to Polymarket, according to CNBC, as reported by Unchained.
Why did Kalshi's relationship with Trump Jr. end?
1789 Capital's investment in Polymarket created a conflict of interest with Trump Jr.'s advisory role at Kalshi. The two platforms compete for customers, trading volume and liquidity—the ability to buy and sell easily.
According to Reuters, as reported by Blockonomi, discussions about the relationship began in August, when the Polymarket investment became public. Kalshi contacted him in the fall to address the issue. This was not, then, a decision that came out of nowhere after the US midterm elections.
Unchained reports that 1789 Capital was reportedly leading a $1 billion funding round for Polymarket in August, contributing $300 million. Kalshi thanked Trump Jr. for helping it reach more customers.
What happens to his Kalshi shares?
The end of his advisory role does not clarify whether Trump Jr. retains his stake in Kalshi. He became a strategic adviser in January 2025 and, according to the Financial Times, received shares worth about $300,000 at the time.
The Financial Times reported that his stake has since been significantly diluted by the issuance of new shares. The company did not comment on the current status of his holdings. Ending an advisory relationship, then, is not the same as giving up an equity stake.
What role does political pressure play?
Kalshi denies that the political climate influenced the decision, although reports describe internal concerns. Reuters cited two people familiar with the discussions who said some employees feared possible repercussions from ties to the presidential family.
Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections. According to Unchained, citing Politico, an aide to Senator Elizabeth Warren said the Trump family's crypto businesses and prediction markets were among her top oversight priorities.
The timing draws attention, but it does not prove a political motive. We draw that distinction: concerns attributed to employees are not the same as the company's official explanation.
What does this mean for prediction markets?
The departure highlights corporate governance issues in an industry already facing increased scrutiny. Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket let users trade contracts tied to real-world events, from elections to sports results. Their prices reflect the probabilities participants assign to each outcome.
In the US, the dispute concerns, among other things, whether sports contracts constitute betting and who has regulatory authority over them. Meanwhile, lawmakers are seeking restrictions on contracts tied to military operations and other sensitive government actions.
If you follow these platforms from Greece, this news does not announce any change to Greek rules. We do, however, believe it highlights an important consideration when assessing a platform: who advises a market, who funds its competitor and how clearly those roles are separated. Ending the relationship addresses the overlap, not the unresolved questions about oversight of the industry as a whole.